Australia and Brazil are undeniably the two “giants” in the global beef trade. Together, both markets account for 35-45% of world trade, and to some extent, dictate the supply and price of beef for available for international customers. With that in mind, our analyst in Brazil Augusto looks into whether the two compete head-to-head for market share.
In January 2015 we published an in depth report into the cattle cycle and how it impacts prices. This article outlined the basis of some of our forecasting methods and provided some detailed background into our analysis that the Australian cattle market in late 2014 was undervalued, had deviated from fundamentals and was due to correct into 2015.
Cattle prices are influenced by the supply and demand of cattle and beef, both in Australia and in our export markets. While they vary from year to year and over time, cattle prices exhibit within-year seasonality.
Overall, producers know all too well how their production systems operate and acknowledge the existence of supply and price seasonality. Yet, sourcing and going through vast amounts of data to quantify the timing and scope of seasonal price moves can be a pretty daunting exercise.
Over the last few weeks, we have published a number of articles suggesting that store cattle remain undervalued. At any other point in time, this statement would sound profoundly flawed given the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) has gained 150¢, or 35%, since April and is now quoted at an all-time high of 572¢/kg cwt. That said, we continue to find sufficient arguments to validate our view that the idea young cattle prices have not overshot. Want to know why?
Topics: Cattle market / cattle price
Cattle markets have rallied substantially since May to reach all-time highs in nominal terms. Yet, we all know too well the volatile nature of livestock markets and that record prices cannot be sustained for too long. Why would this time be different? Or perhaps, have we all blindly jumped onto a bullish bandwagon without really knowing what lies ahead?
Over the last two weeks, we have published a few articles on where we think cattle prices will be headed over the next five years. By any stretch of the imagination, these paint a remarkably positive outlook for cattle markets. To some, they may look over-optimistic, or even unrealistic.
However, our views are underpinned by systematic, robust analysis of key supply and demand fundamentals – and are updated regularly when new information is released.
Topics: Cattle market outlook