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Mecardo Blog

Is Brazil a real threat to Australian cattle markets?

Posted by Augusto Semmelroth on 25 May 2016

Australia and Brazil are undeniably the two “giants” in the global beef trade. Together, both markets account for 35-45% of world trade, and to some extent, dictate the supply and price of beef for available for international customers. With that in mind, our analyst in Brazil Augusto looks into whether the two compete head-to-head for market share.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price, beef price, beef market

The enemy of my enemy is my friend

Posted by Robert Herrmann on 16 March 2016

The AMIEU acting in the interests of its members comes as no shock – but when they act in the interests of the meat processors we are bemused. Throw in supporting comments from the Animal Activists and you could be excused from thinking the world has gone mad. The ancient proverb 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' could well have been mused with this relationship in mind!

The take away message when you look at the recent press releases from the AMIEU regarding the threat to processing jobs from the Live Export (LE) trade is that the 1.4 million cattle exported last year have the potential to ruin cattle producers, processors and destroy the AMIEU member’s jobs.  I was hoping to read that it was also the cause of Donald Trump’s hair-do but unfortunately no mention.
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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price, live export

The cattle cycle impact on beef prices – in depth report

Posted by Augusto Semmelroth on 5 February 2016

In January 2015 we published an in depth report into the cattle cycle and how it impacts prices. This article outlined the basis of some of our forecasting methods and provided some detailed background into our analysis that the Australian cattle market in late 2014 was undervalued, had deviated from fundamentals and was due to correct into 2015.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price, livestock price, beef price, markets, commodity

How do cattle prices change throughout the year?

Posted by Augusto Semmelroth on 19 January 2016

Cattle prices are influenced by the supply and demand of cattle and beef, both in Australia and in our export markets. While they vary from year to year and over time, cattle prices exhibit within-year seasonality.

Overall, producers know all too well how their production systems operate and acknowledge the existence of supply and price seasonality. Yet, sourcing and going through vast amounts of data to quantify the timing and scope of seasonal price moves can be a pretty daunting exercise.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price, Webinars, Cattle market outlook, Market analysis

Magical 600¢ barrier within striking distance!

Posted by Robert Herrmann on 21 September 2015

We were nuts, they said. Cattle prices at 600¢? Yet, despite the 20% increase last week in eastern states young cattle yardings, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) recovery continued to gather momentum to see the indicator move closer to the 600¢/kg cwt mark.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price

Young cattle markets actually under-priced - are we crazy?

Posted by Augusto Semmelroth on 7 September 2015

Over the last few weeks, we have published a number of articles suggesting that store cattle remain undervalued. At any other point in time, this statement would sound profoundly flawed given the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) has gained 150¢, or 35%, since April and is now quoted at an all-time high of 572¢/kg cwt. That said, we continue to find sufficient arguments to validate our view that the idea young cattle prices have not overshot.  Want to know why? 

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price

WEBINAR: Where to now for cattle prices?

Posted by Jenianne Hall on 14 July 2015

 

The last couple of months have seen Australian cattle prices surge to unprecedented levels. Strong demand fundamentals, particularly in our key markets, and the expected tightening in Australian supplies, bode well for a continuation of this good fortune. 

So, how far could cattle markets go?  What risks are there? And what’s likely to happen if El Nino eventuates?

In this webinar, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) Manager Market Information, Ben Thomas, will outline MLA's cattle projections for the next five years.  Mecardo analyst, Augusto Semmelroth, will then take a look at what these projections might mean for cattle prices down the track.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price, General information

Good times ahead for cattle market...but not all will benefit

Posted by Robert Herrmann on 2 June 2015

There have been a number of important stories relating to the Australian cattle market over the past year. Increasing prices finally coming through on the back of record export beef prices, high slaughter numbers providing the opportunity for processors to make good profits, and the seasonal conditions (rainfall is always a talking point in farming!) have all formed a significant part of discussions.

The high slaughter numbers coming forward in recent months may have been influenced by the rising cattle market, but there is no doubt that the major influence over the past 2-3 years has been the poor season.

But this only tells part of the story; each year the number of male steers sold is relatively constant; you can only sell the number of male calves born each year.

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Topics: Cattle market / cattle price